Could Wall Street be wrong on gold again? | Resource Investor

By Justin Smyth

It seems as if all the major Wall Street institutions are bearish on gold, even after a 2+ year bear market and a major pullback. At first glance you might be a little discouraged by reading major bank after major bank release a lower forecast on the price of gold for 2014 and beyond. But knowing their track record of forecasting the gold price you might feel a lot better, and even see the possibility of a contrarian trade forming.

Let’s flashback to August 2011 when gold was about to make its latest high. As you can see by this article published by Reuters, the major banks were RAISING their gold price forecasts for 2011 and 2012. This was right when gold was making a major top! Sentiment back then was bullish on gold, and gold was one of the only things going up. Little did Wall Street know it was 100% wrong on the gold price, but like so often happens in markets it turned out to be a herd opinion that was wrong. Unlike today though this time it was a herd opinion in the bullish direction.