The Hard Truth: Successful Investing Involves a Lot of Luck

Of all the traits needed for success — hard work, intelligence, creativity — the most overlooked is luck.

Bill Gates went to one of the only high schools in the United States that had a computer. Warren Buffett was born in a capitalist country. Donald Trump had a wealthy father. All of these guys earned their success, but in slightly different circumstances outside of their control, things could have turned out far differently. To put it another way: People with just as much ambition and intelligence are broke nobodies only because they were born in a different time and place.

This same thing happens with all investors. And there’s an easy way to prove it. The long-term history of stocks tells us that:

  • Stocks earn a reasonable return after inflation.
  • The longer you stay invested, the better the odds of achieving that return.